2018 waste paper imports are greatly reduced is a foregone conclusion.

According to the actual import data of waste paper published by the customs, the actual import in January was 1.24 million tons, down 44% year-on-year; the actual import in February was 1.27 million tons, down 48% year-on-year; the actual import in March was 1.42 million tons, down 54% year-on-year. In April, the actual import was 1.19 million tons, down 47% year-on-year;

the actual import in May was 860,000 tons, down 65% year-on-year; the actual import in June was 1.12 million tons, down 53% year-on-year; the actual import in July was 1.43 million tons, down year-on-year. 33%; from January to July 2018, the cumulative import was 8.53 million tons, down 50% year-on-year.

Enterprises importing waste paper must apply to the Ministry of Environmental Protection for import quotas before they can be imported. Therefore, the amount of waste paper import license can be considered as the ceiling of the actual imported quantity of waste paper. Up to now, a total of 67 companies have been approved for 2018 waste paper import licenses, a total of 14.33 million tons, compared with nearly 48% in 2017, and the number of imported waste papers in 2018 is a foregone conclusion.

Future waste paper imports will continue to decline

According to the adjusted tax increase list announced by the Ministry of Commerce, the US import tariffs from 0 to 25% were officially implemented at 12:01 on August 23, 2018. We believe that after the addition of 25% tariffs, the US waste price will rise by 400-550 yuan / ton, or will push up all foreign waste prices, resulting in a reduction in the gap between foreign waste and national waste prices, superimposed a series of waste paper import policies since 2017 The adjustment of the amount of imported waste paper in the second half of 2018 will continue.

The target of zero waste import in 2020 has been clarified, and the issue of raw materials has become a key factor affecting the development of the industry. On June 24, 2018, the State Council clearly stated that “we will strive to achieve zero import of solid waste before the end of 2020”; the draft revision of the “Solid Waste Law” draft on July 11th reaffirmed the goal of zero solid waste import, zero waste import or Will be written into the law. The impact of the waste paper New Deal on the quantity of imports is expected to exceed market expectations. The reduction of China's waste paper imports in 2018-2020 has become a necessity. How to effectively solve the problem of raw materials has become a key factor affecting the development of the industry.

In the case that the national waste supply cannot be fully guaranteed, the substitution effect of wood pulp on waste paper will be triggered, and the prices of raw materials such as waste paper and wood pulp are expected to continue to rise. The problem of raw materials has become the key point in the paper industry in recent years, and domestic environmental protection has heightened the barriers for paper companies to solve this problem in China.