If September 2026 has one defining keyword for China's paper industry, it may not be price "hikes", but "recovery".
Paper prices are rising, pulp prices are rebounding, leading producers are suspending production to control output, and profits are recovering etc. These changes are unfolding at the same time. Unlike previous price increases driven by demand stimulus, however, the current shift is driven more by the industry’s own need to recover. This is particularly evident in the white paperboard segment, where several leading producers have issued price-increase notices at nearly the same time. The message is clear: the paper industry can no longer sustain prolonged operations in which selling prices fall below costs.
A wave of price increases triggered by a cost-price squeeze
At the end of September, leading white paperboard producers including Nine Dragons Paper, Bohui Paper, and APP (China) announced that they would raise prices for white paperboard products by RMB 200 per tonne from October 1.
On the surface, this looks like an ordinary price adjustment. In reality, the latest round of increases is more like an industry-wide effort at self-preservation.
For more than a year, the white paperboard market has remained depressed. Although producers issued price-increase notices repeatedly, actual transaction prices continued to face downward pressure. By September this year, prices in some white paperboard markets had fallen close to the cost line, leaving the industry facing a pronounced cost-price squeeze.
Prices of wood pulp, coal, wood chips, and logistics and transportation have remained high, while the recovery in end-market demand has fallen short of expectations. As a result, mills have continued operating but have struggled to earn reasonable profits.
For many paper mills, continuing to sell at the old prices means that the more they sell, the more they lose.
Leading paper producers are taking the initiative to stabilize prices
Compared with the price competition that was widespread in the industry in the past, one new development deserves attention: leading producers are beginning to manage supply proactively.
Since September, Nine Dragons Paper has issued successive price-increase notices at its bases in Taicang, Dongguan, Quanzhou, Tianjin, Hebei, Shenyang, and Chongqing, raising prices for products such as corrugated paper and kraftliner in multiple rounds. At the same time, major producers including Nine Dragons, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Rongcheng have generally scheduled shutdowns for maintenance, reducing market supply in an effort to stabilize the price structure.
Such moves have been relatively uncommon over the past several years.
After going through the previous industry downturn, companies have increasingly recognized that competing on price alone to gain market share is not a sustainable strategy. Stabilizing prices and protecting profits matter more than simply increasing sales volume. From this perspective, the successive price hikes and maintenance shutdowns seen in September are proactive choices by leading producers to improve the balance between supply and demand.
A rebound in pulp prices provides support for increases
Alongside changes on the supply side, the raw-material market has also begun to show signs of warming. Since September, the international wood pulp market has gained momentum. The effects of the closure of Domtar's Canadian softwood pulp mill have continued, while several overseas pulp mills have entered maintenance cycles, reducing global shipments of market pulp. Meanwhile, Chile's Arauco has raised its quoted prices for hardwood pulp and unbleached pulp, further strengthening expectations of market-wide price increases.
As arrivals of imported pulp decline, spot supplies at Chinese ports are gradually tightening. Although the rebound in raw-material prices adds to paper mills' cost pressures, it also provides a stronger rationale for paper-price increases. When raw-material prices rise, prices for finished products naturally need to find a more reasonable equilibrium.
Packaging paper is leading the way out of the downturn
Based on current market performance, packaging paper-not every paper grade-is among the first to benefit from the recovery.
Stockpiling for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day gift-box packaging has begun, while export orders for Christmas-related goods are arriving earlier, boosting activity in the markets for corrugated paper, linerboard, and white paperboard.
According to industry statistics, corrugated paper prices have risen by more than RMB 300 per tonne cumulatively since late April, while linerboard prices have also rebounded.
By contrast, tissue paper still faces a situation of "higher volume but weak prices", while the cultural paper market remains relatively soft under supply-and-demand pressure.
The recovery is underway, but it is not broad-based. Structural recovery remains the clearest feature of the market at present.
Leading producers are already translating the recovery into results
Ultimately, market changes must show up in profits.
Since the first half of 2026, some leading paper producers have already reported improved results.
Nine Dragons Paper recorded sales volume of 24.5 million tonnes in fiscal 2026, up 14% year on year and setting a new record for the fourth consecutive year. Its net profit increased by more than 80% year on year.
Lee & Man Paper's net profit rose by nearly 70% in the first half of the year.
Among A-share-listed companies, profit growth at firms including Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Jingxing Paper, and Rongsheng Environmental Protection generally exceeded 50%.
These figures suggest that improving industry conditions are beginning to feed through from prices to profits. Integrated pulp-and-paper producers, benefiting from self-supplied raw materials and economies of scale, have been the biggest beneficiaries of this earnings recovery.
September may mark the start of a new cycle
For China's paper industry, the most important significance of September may not be the size of the price increases, but that the market is beginning to accept a basic fact: paper prices cannot remain below production costs indefinitely.
When the cost-price squeeze persists and corporate profits continue to shrink, the industry will eventually enter a phase of self-correction.
Price-increase notices, output controls, rising pulp prices, and improving profitability may appear to be separate developments, but they all point in the same direction: the industry is gradually moving away from an era of price competition and into a phase of value recovery.
